TLDR
- US lawmakers have urged the CFTC to ban betting on elections, citing concerns about influencing outcomes and eroding public trust
- Decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has seen over $500 million in bets on the 2024 US presidential election
- Polymarket’s website traffic has surpassed major DeFi platforms, driven by interest in election betting
- The platform’s betting volume reached $1.03 billion in July 2024, up from $672.94 million in June
- On Polymarket, Trump is favored to win the 2024 election with a 53% chance, while Harris’s odds for the Democratic nomination have increased
As the 2024 United States presidential election approaches, a group of Democratic lawmakers is calling for a ban on election betting, while decentralized prediction platform Polymarket sees record-breaking volumes and traffic.
Eight members of Congress, including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Chris Van Hollen, have sent a letter to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Rostin Benham urging the agency to finalize and implement a rule prohibiting betting on US elections.
The lawmakers argue that such markets “could influence and interfere with elections and further erode public trust in democracy.”
In their letter, the legislators emphasized that elections are not a “for-profit enterprise” and that allowing betting on electoral outcomes could change voter motivations from political convictions to financial calculations.
They expressed concern about the potential for billionaires to place large bets while simultaneously contributing to political campaigns, and for political insiders to exploit non-public information for personal gain.
The push for a ban comes as Polymarket, a popular decentralized prediction platform, has seen a surge in betting activity related to the 2024 US presidential election. The platform has recorded over $500 million in bets on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, while the “Democratic Nominee 2024” market has accumulated $319.7 million in bets.
Polymarket’s growth has been remarkable, with its website traffic surpassing that of major decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. Recent data shows Polymarket averaging 296,515 daily visits, with users spending an average of 6 minutes and 46 seconds per visit. This outpaces prominent DeFi platforms like Uniswap, which averages 134,309 daily visits.
The platform’s betting volume has also seen a significant increase, reaching $1.03 billion in July 2024, up from $672.94 million in June. This marks a substantial rise compared to July 2023, when the cumulative bet volume stood at $283.16 million.
The surge in betting activity appears to be driven by recent political events, including an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. These developments have led to increased speculation about a potential face-off between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
On Polymarket, Trump remains the favored candidate among bettors, maintaining a 53% chance of winning the election. However, his odds have fallen from 59% following a recent public appearance. Meanwhile, Harris’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination more than doubled from 18% to 44% in the week following Biden’s withdrawal from the race.
The platform’s interactive map and trending market analysis reveal a dynamic and heavily contested election season. Republicans are currently favored to control the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are expected to retain control of the House. Key battleground states show a mix of support, with Republicans leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and Democrats holding Michigan.
As the debate over election betting continues, it’s worth noting that Polymarket has previously faced regulatory scrutiny. In January 2022, the platform settled a $1.4 million fine with the CFTC for offering event-based binary option contracts without proper registration.
