TLDR
- Prediction market Polymarket shows 80% odds of President Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race
- Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds of becoming the Democratic nominee have risen to 59-63%
- Reports suggest Biden could decide to drop out as early as this weekend due to mounting pressure
- Former President Barack Obama has reportedly expressed doubts about Biden’s viability as a candidate
- Donald Trump’s reelection odds on Polymarket have dipped slightly to 65% after surviving an assassination attempt
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, now shows an 80% probability of President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, a dramatic increase from just 33% two days ago.
This surge in odds comes amid reports that Biden, who is 81 years old and recently tested positive for COVID-19, could decide to exit the race as soon as this weekend. The pressure on Biden to step aside has intensified following a poor debate performance last month, which reignited discussions about his age and fitness for office.
The Washington Post reported that former President Barack Obama has expressed doubts to political allies about the “viability” of Biden’s reelection bid. This revelation, coupled with Biden’s health concerns, has seemingly accelerated the shift in prediction market sentiment.
Key Democratic figures have reportedly urged Biden to reconsider his candidacy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have both reportedly advised Biden to drop out.
Pelosi allegedly told Biden that polling indicates he cannot defeat GOP presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump, and warned that his continued candidacy could harm Democrats’ chances of winning the House.
As Biden’s prospects dim on prediction markets, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner to secure the Democratic nomination. Polymarket shows Harris’s odds of becoming the nominee at 59-63%, a significant jump from just 15% the previous day.
Other potential Democratic challengers mentioned in news reports include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
The timing of these developments is crucial, as the Democratic National Convention, where the party will select its presidential nominee, is scheduled for August 19 in Chicago. The rapidly changing odds reflect the growing uncertainty and tension within the Democratic Party as this important date approaches.
Former President Donald Trump’s reelection odds on Polymarket have slightly decreased to 65%, down from a recent high of 70%.
This minor dip follows an assassination attempt on Trump last weekend, which he survived. Despite this incident, Trump remains the frontrunner in the Republican field and maintains a strong position in the overall election predictions.
The potential exit of Biden from the race could significantly reshape the 2024 election landscape. If Harris indeed becomes the Democratic nominee, it would set the stage for a historic election, potentially featuring the first woman of color as a major party’s presidential candidate.
