TLDR
- Polymarket has seen record trading volumes in July, surpassing $116 million.
- Much of the volume is driven by bets on the U.S. presidential election.
- Trump is currently favored to win with 69% odds on the platform.
- Nate Silver, renowned statistician and election analyst, has joined Polymarket as an advisor.
- The platform has seen a surge in new users and daily active wallets.
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, is experiencing unprecedented trading volumes as speculation over the 2024 U.S. presidential election intensifies.
Just two weeks into July, the platform has already recorded $116.4 million in trading volume, surpassing its previous monthly record of $111.5 million set in June.
The surge in activity is largely attributed to bets on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Traders have wagered a staggering $263.5 million on this event alone, highlighting the intense interest in political outcomes.
Current predictions on Polymarket favor former President Donald Trump, giving him a 69% chance of victory. Incumbent President Joe Biden trails with 19% odds, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris at 6% and former First Lady Michelle Obama at 2%.
Adding to the platform’s momentum, Polymarket has announced that Nate Silver, the renowned statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, will join as an advisor.
Silver, known for his accurate election predictions, brings valuable expertise to the platform.
“Prediction markets are playing an increasingly vital role in helping people understand and plan for the future,” Silver stated.
“Polymarket’s scale and structure are providing for considerably more robust and efficient trading than we’ve seen in the past.”
Polymarket CEO Shayne Copelan expressed enthusiasm about Silver’s addition, saying, “Nate’s guidance will be critical in helping us take our offering to the next level. It’s a dream come true to welcome him to Polymarket’s advisory board.”
The platform’s growth extends beyond political betting. Polymarket has seen $471.9 million in total wagers since the beginning of the year, covering topics ranging from finance and sports to crypto and weather events.
This diversity of markets has attracted a broad user base, with daily active wallets reaching 4,200 amid recent high-profile events.
The surge in activity has also brought an influx of new users to the platform. After registering 29,400 active users last month, Polymarket has already seen 22,000 active users halfway through July. The platform’s Discord server has cultivated a community of 11,300 members, with 1,600 typically online at any given time.
Despite its growing influence, Polymarket faces some challenges. The platform is not available to traders in the United States due to regulatory constraints.
However, its projections are increasingly cited by mainstream news outlets on political matters, including Newsweek and the Wall Street Journal.
